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China Matters

Despite manufacturing overcapacity and weak domestic demand, China's GDP growth rate improved in Q2. Oil consumption was up and crude imports reached a new record in August. But August also saw Chinese industrial output expansion drop to a 5-year low and exports growth slow, prompting fresh economic stimulus. China deepened energy ties with Russia to increase energy security.

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Oil Market Snapshot

Brent declined to a two-year low of c. $97/bbl and ICE Brent Futures contango deepened. We have slashed our oil price forecast to $104.66/bbl on average for 2014 and to $98.08/bbl for 2015. The revision is prompted by a shift in the futures market and a stronger US Dollar. Excess oil supply weighs on short term oil prices, partly offset by Middle-Eastern turmoil and production cuts. Longer-term, we see strong fundamentals with a tight oil market as investment in capacity slows.

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India Oil Products and Natural Gas Analysis

Diesel deregulation only briefly curbed Indian oil products consumption, demand increased again after the new government was voted in. Gasoline and diesel demand is expected to rise whereas fuel oil and kerosene to fall. India’s domestic gas production continues to lag as gas market price reforms have been postponed until end of September.

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Petrologica: Energy Research and Simulation

Petrologica flies you fast forward to the future with a world of interactive and dynamic simulation tools.

We build simulators, models and scenario tools for market planners, management and investors to assist organisations in understanding the nature of tomorrow's energy markets.  We undertake private research on clients' request, enabling us to meet individual client requirements.


                      Assess the sensitivities of key market factors as they diverge from their assumed positions through our simulation tools.
                      Gain access to a substantial and meticulously maintained database covering oil and gas fields, drilling rigs and energy production around the globe.
                      Place your organisation in a unique position to understand and plan for what is to come.
                      Benefit from bespoke reports and forecasts to meet your specific needs.
                      Enjoy access to Petrologica’s tools and analyses on an iPad or Android tablet.



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