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Oil Market Snapshot

Brent fell to $82.6/bbl on 16th October month-to-date as OPEC members refrained from production cuts and ICE Brent Futures contango steepened. On account of weaker fundamentals and bearish futures trading, we now forecast average Brent of $102.36/bbl for 2014 and $91.15/bbl for 2015. A potential near-term OPEC decision on production cuts could lead to oil prices above our forecast for 2015; however cuts might not result in lower exports. A prolonged period of low prices would translate swiftly into delayed production of US tight oil and eventually other upstream projects.

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Europe's Gas Supply Mix - Present & Future

Europe's conventional gas output is declining fast and the gas supply mix will remain dominated by Russian pipeline gas. LNG will be unable to materially offset reliance on pipeline gas in general whilst US LNG to Europe seems an unlikely prospect at the moment. Diversified supply from shale gas in meaningful quantities probably will remain wishful thinking, too. Although yet-to-find EuroMed gas resources are plentiful, the ball is in IOCs' corner to explore and develop them.

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Europe's Offshore E&P Potential - Economics & Viability

Upstream spending has increased 400% in the last decade, but production has been falling. Demand growth is currently met by unconventionals such as LTO. As declining oil prices and rising costs limit IOCs' spending abilities, exploration cutbacks and more project delays are to be expected. Lower tax and break-even cost areas will attract attention but unconventionals will eat up a large chunk of investment capital. The Mediterranean E&P horizon is uncertain until Europe becomes more competitive.

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Petrologica: Energy Research and Simulation

Petrologica flies you fast forward to the future with a world of interactive and dynamic simulation tools.

We build simulators, models and scenario tools for market planners, management and investors to assist organisations in understanding the nature of tomorrow's energy markets.  We undertake private research on clients' request, enabling us to meet individual client requirements.

 

                      Assess the sensitivities of key market factors as they diverge from their assumed positions through our simulation tools.
                         
                      Gain access to a substantial and meticulously maintained database covering oil and gas fields, drilling rigs and energy production around the globe.
                         
                      Place your organisation in a unique position to understand and plan for what is to come.
                         
                      Benefit from bespoke reports and forecasts to meet your specific needs.
                         
                      Enjoy access to Petrologica’s tools and analyses on an iPad or Android tablet.
   

 

 

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