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LNG Market Snapshot

The global LNGC fleet and order book now stand at 399 and 144 vessels, respectively. The order book to fleet ratio thus edged up by 3 percentage points to 36% compared to January 2015. The majority of the current order book remains based on firm charters, with 67 vessels (47%) likely to operate on routes between Australia, Malaysia and Indonesia, and JKT buyers. The number of speculative orders now stands at 37 vessels (26%) whilst our estimate of the number of options placed is 23 (16%) of the order book. Only 16 vessels (11%) appear to be earmarked for the Atlantic Basin. Current market visibility suggests that JKT buyers are not yet planning to acquire spot cargoes of LNG.

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Oil Market Snapshot

Oil prices have departed from their price slide that began in 2014 and saw Brent drop to $45.13/bbl on 13th January 2015, the lowest since the 2009 global recession. The Brent for April settlement price climbed to $62.35/bbl on the ICE Futures Europe exchange on 25th February. Our Brent forecast has been revised to an average of $56.64/bbl in 2015 and $75.04/bbl in 2016, an increase of 2.1% and 2.9%, respectively, from our January forecast based on our expectations of slower supply growth and relatively stronger demand growth forecasts. We expect global oil demand growth in 2015 to remain tepid despite the considerable drop in oil prices because global economic growth lacks vigour and many end-users have become more energy efficient.

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Oil Market Snapshot

Brent has stabilised at below $50/bbl for more than a week now after losing 60% since its June 2014 peak of $115.19/bbl. The price slide continued throughout December with the market remaining oversupplied in Q4 2014. The market reaction to OPEC’s decision to maintain production has been a price drop of a magnitude that had not been envisaged by most traders.

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Petrologica: Energy Research and Simulation

Petrologica flies you fast forward to the future with a world of interactive and dynamic simulation tools.

We build simulators, models and scenario tools for market planners, management and investors to assist organisations in understanding the nature of tomorrow's energy markets.  We undertake private research on clients' request, enabling us to meet individual client requirements.

 

                      Assess the sensitivities of key market factors as they diverge from their assumed positions through our simulation tools.
                         
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                      Enjoy access to Petrologica’s tools and analyses on an iPad or Android tablet.
   

 

 

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