POPS: The Petrologica Oil Price Simulator

Why the Oil Price Matters

Every decision, from the forward ordering of bunker fuels for ships through government fiscal policy to the planning of new energy investments across the whole spectrum of industry depends on an explicit or tacit assumption about the price of oil.

Oil prices drive other energy prices, affect economic growth and determine the business fortunes for thousands of companies worldwide. Yet very few players at any level have access to an oil price simulation tool or forecasting model.

What affects the Oil Price

Oil prices are not set by a single parameter but by a wide range of drivers whose weight and influence changes from month to month and sometimes from day to day.

What the Simulator Does

The POPS simulator tool demonstrates the large impact of small changes in some of the key variables. POPS has been under constant development for several years supported by a series of models of oil supply, demand and of the relationships to economic growth and changing efficiency factors or intensities. The objective is a family of tools to simulate both short term price movements on a monthly basis and the current long term tool that measures movements on an annual basis.

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